Image Source: Yahoo Finance
Yahoo Finance is drawing attention to a powerful technical signal that could support stocks through the remainder of 2026, even as investors face rising bond yields, surging oil prices, and growing geopolitical uncertainty.
The S&P 500’s long-term trend remains firmly positive. According to strategists at The Kobeissi Letter, the benchmark index’s 200-day moving average has risen for 329 consecutive trading sessions. That represents the fourth-strongest streak of its kind during the past decade.
Yahoo Finance highlights a powerful bullish signal
A rising 200-day moving average is widely viewed as evidence of sustained market momentum. It does not guarantee that stocks will rise every day, but it can show that the broader trend remains constructive despite short-term pullbacks.
The latest streak follows a previous 460-session run that ended briefly in April 2025 after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” market sell-off. Combined, the two periods represent roughly 800 sessions of upward momentum. Since 1990, only a handful of comparable streaks have been longer.
The longest run lasted 1,448 days during the dot-com bubble around 2000. Still, current conditions have a more encouraging historical comparison. The Kobeissi Letter said the S&P 500 has produced an average annual gain of 8.5% since 1999 when its 200-day moving average was rising.
“History suggests the bullish trend is far from over,” the strategists said.
Why investors remain cautiously optimistic
Strong corporate earnings are helping support the stock market’s advance. JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said weekly earnings-per-share revisions have continued to improve and are now net positive across all major regions.
Matejka also acknowledged that investors remain concerned about a potentially significant correction. However, he argued that if stock prices weaken while corporate profits continue to rise, valuations could become more attractive.
“We believe one should continue using the dips to add,” Matejka wrote.
- The S&P 500’s 200-day moving average has risen for 329 sessions.
- Historical data since 1999 shows average annual gains of 8.5% during similar periods.
- Corporate earnings revisions remain positive across key global regions.
- Geopolitical risks and higher borrowing costs could limit future gains.
Rising yields and oil prices create fresh risks
The bullish technical picture is developing alongside several major threats. A worldwide government bond sell-off has pushed yields sharply higher, raising concerns about the cost of financing for households, businesses, and governments.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note recently touched its highest level since 2023. That rate is closely watched because it influences borrowing costs throughout the economy, including mortgages, auto loans, corporate debt, and credit cards.
The 30-year Treasury yield is also near a two-decade high. For investors, higher long-term yields can make bonds more competitive with stocks and place pressure on equity valuations, particularly in technology and other growth-oriented sectors.
Oil prices are adding another layer of uncertainty. Crude has moved above $90 per barrel as tensions involving Iran raise concerns about possible disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy shipments.
Goldman Sachs warned that oil could reach $120 per barrel if attacks or transport blockages worsen in the region. A sustained energy-price shock could increase inflation, delay interest-rate cuts, and weaken consumer spending.
What the market outlook means for investors
The latest Yahoo Finance analysis presents a market caught between powerful earnings momentum and growing macroeconomic risks. The technical trend suggests that the long-term rally may have room to continue, but the path could become more volatile.
Investors may need to monitor several indicators closely:
- Whether the S&P 500 remains above its long-term moving averages.
- Whether corporate earnings estimates continue moving higher.
- How long-term Treasury yields respond to inflation and government borrowing.
- Whether oil prices stabilize or rise further because of Middle East tensions.
A market correction would not necessarily end the broader bull trend. If earnings remain resilient, declines could provide opportunities for long-term investors. However, higher yields and expensive valuations may make future gains more measured than those seen during the first half of the year.
Frequently asked questions
What does a rising 200-day moving average mean?
It generally indicates that a stock index is in a sustained long-term uptrend. Investors often use it to assess broader market momentum.
How strong has the S&P 500 trend been?
The S&P 500’s 200-day moving average has risen for 329 consecutive trading sessions, one of the strongest streaks recorded during the past decade.
Why are Treasury yields important for stocks?
Higher Treasury yields can increase borrowing costs and make fixed-income investments more attractive, potentially reducing demand for stocks.
Why could higher oil prices hurt the market?
Expensive oil can raise inflation, reduce household purchasing power, and pressure corporate profit margins.
Does a correction mean the bull market is over?
Not necessarily. A correction may be temporary, especially if earnings remain strong and the broader long-term trend continues to rise.
