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NASCAR returns to New Hampshire Motor Speedway on Sunday for the 2026 Dollar Tree 301, a key race with the Cup Series playoffs only two events away. The green flag is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET at the track known as the “Magic Mile,” where Ryan Blaney won last year.
According to odds cited by CBS Sports from FanDuel, Blaney and Christopher Bell are the early co-favorites at +400. Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin follow at +550, while Chase Briscoe is listed at +850. However, an advanced projection model is challenging the market on one of the most recognizable names in the field.
Surprising NASCAR Picks Fade Joey Logano
Professional DFS player Mike McClure’s computer model is fading Logano at +550 and projects the two-time New Hampshire winner to finish outside the top five. The recommendation stands out because Logano is one of the shortest-priced drivers on the board and enters the race after winning last week at Richmond.
Logano’s track record at New Hampshire remains notable, but both of his victories came more than a decade ago. The model also points to his results on comparable one-mile tracks this season. Logano finished 31st at Phoenix and 33rd at Darlington, results that raise questions about whether his current price accurately reflects his winning chances.
That contrast between reputation and recent performance is central to the model’s NASCAR betting outlook. A shorter price does not always represent the best value, particularly when a driver’s recent results do not match the expectations built into the odds.
Powerful Longshot Pick: Josh Berry Draws Attention
While Logano is being downgraded, the model is high on Josh Berry at +1500. Berry has recorded three consecutive top-10 finishes heading into New Hampshire, giving him more top-10 results over the past three races than he had during the first 21 events of the season combined.
His history at the Magic Mile adds another compelling angle. Berry finished third in his first Cup Series start at the track in 2024 before placing second in his second start in 2025. That combination of recent momentum and strong track performance makes Berry one of the most intriguing longshot options in the 2026 Dollar Tree 301 field.
Berry’s price also creates a significant potential payout compared with the leading contenders. Although +1500 implies a much lower winning probability than the favorites, his recent consistency suggests he may be capable of challenging near the front if his car handles well over the long run.
Critical Starting Position and Race Details
Tyler Reddick earned the pole with a qualifying time of 29.054 seconds and a speed of 131.094 mph. He is listed at +1800 and will have the benefit of starting at the head of the field, although New Hampshire’s flat layout often places a premium on tire management, rhythm and long-run speed.
The top of the betting board features several proven Cup Series contenders:
- Ryan Blaney: +400
- Christopher Bell: +400
- Denny Hamlin: +550
- Joey Logano: +550
- Chase Briscoe: +850
- Kyle Larson: +1300
- Ty Gibbs: +1400
- Josh Berry: +1500
Hamlin is seeking his fourth victory at New Hampshire, while Bell has multiple wins at the track. The recent history of the event also favors established organizations: drivers from Penske, Joe Gibbs Racing or Stewart-Haas have won the last 17 NASCAR New Hampshire races, according to the report.
What the 10,000-Simulation Model Reveals
McClure’s model simulates every lap of the race 10,000 times and has correctly identified 30 winners since 2021, as reported by CBS Sports. It also successfully backed Hamlin during his consecutive victories at Michigan and Pocono in June.
The model is not simply selecting the favorite. Instead, it weighs qualifying position, track history, recent form and performance on similar circuits. That approach explains why Berry is receiving support at a longer price while Logano is being treated as an overvalued option.
The complete projection reportedly includes two additional longshots priced around +2000 who could make a serious run near the front. As always, odds can change before the race, and no prediction guarantees a result. Bettors should compare prices, set limits and consider the risks before placing any wager.
FAQs About the 2026 Dollar Tree 301
When is the 2026 Dollar Tree 301?
The race is scheduled for Sunday, Aug. 23, 2026, with the green flag set for 3 p.m. ET at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Who are the favorites at New Hampshire?
Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell are listed as the co-favorites at +400, followed by Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano at +550.
Which driver is the recommended longshot?
The model is especially high on Josh Berry at +1500 after three straight top-10 finishes and consecutive strong results at New Hampshire.
Why is Joey Logano being faded?
The model cites Logano’s struggles on comparable one-mile tracks this season and notes that his two New Hampshire wins came more than 10 years ago.
Who won the pole position?
Tyler Reddick won the pole with a time of 29.054 seconds and a speed of 131.094 mph.
