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MLB standings are entering the most important stretch of the 2026 regular season, with division races, wild-card battles and individual awards still hanging in the balance. In an ESPN survey published Sept. 7, baseball experts offered their predictions for the final month, including which contenders will reach October and which stars could dominate the final weeks.
While several playoff positions appear relatively secure, the experts expect some movement before the postseason field is finalized. Most voters predicted that between nine and 11 of the current 12 projected playoff teams will remain in the field, suggesting that September could bring tension without a complete overhaul of the race.
MLB Standings Predictions Reveal Critical Playoff Battles
The division races are viewed as more stable than the wild-card contests. Nine voters believe all six current division leaders will hold on, while six expect one team to fall short. The American League remains especially unpredictable, with several average teams competing for limited postseason positions.
The New York Yankees are considered unlikely to overtake the Tampa Bay Rays unless Aaron Judge returns at full strength and helps his team make up ground quickly. The Cleveland Guardians face a similar challenge, with offensive inconsistency making a late charge difficult. In the American League West, the Texas Rangers could still pressure the Houston Astros, although Houston has won nine of its 13 games against Texas this season.
Blue Jays Emerge as a Powerful Wild-Card Pick
The Toronto Blue Jays received 10 votes to secure the final American League wild-card spot. Cleveland received four votes, while Texas received one. Toronto’s recent history is a major reason for the optimism, as the club played deep into last year’s postseason and has the experience needed for a September surge.
The National League’s final projected spot is expected to come down to the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks. San Diego received 12 votes compared with three for Arizona. The Padres have surged after their offense improved sharply, going 20-7 during a key stretch and rising into postseason contention.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill have helped energize San Diego’s lineup, while Mason Miller gives the Padres a dominant late-inning option. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have dealt with the distraction surrounding Ketel Marte during a tense divisional race.
Brewers and Dodgers Lead NL Bye Predictions
Milwaukee was the clear favorite to earn one of the National League’s top-two seeds, receiving all 15 votes. The Los Angeles Dodgers followed with 13 votes, while Atlanta received only two. The Brewers’ strong division position gives them a significant advantage, but the Dodgers remain a major threat despite concerns about their offense.
Some analysts believe Shohei Ohtani may need additional rest before the postseason. His health and effectiveness could play a major role in determining whether Los Angeles earns a first-round bye. Atlanta faces a more demanding schedule, including series against Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and Chicago.
Powerful September Player Predictions
Kyle Schwarber was the overwhelming favorite to lead Major League Baseball in home runs, collecting 12 votes. Pete Crow-Armstrong received three votes after a spectacular August in which he led all players with 14 home runs.
Schwarber is chasing another 50-home-run season, but voters noted that his production has slowed since July, possibly because of a lingering lower-back issue. Crow-Armstrong, known as PCA, has surged with 15 home runs since the start of August and an impressive 1.101 OPS dating back to June.
The American League Triple Crown race is much closer. Yordan Alvarez received seven votes to win all three categories, while eight experts predicted he would fall short. Alvarez remains an MVP favorite, but Chandler Simpson, Junior Caminero and Pete Alonso are applying pressure in batting average, home runs and RBIs.
Cease Favored to Win Strikeout Crown
Dylan Cease was the leading choice to finish as the 2026 strikeout leader, earning 13 votes compared with two for Jacob Misiorowski. Cease is pursuing his sixth consecutive season with at least 200 strikeouts and could benefit from a heavy workload as Toronto fights for a playoff berth.
Misiorowski has already exceeded his previous career high by 26 innings, giving Milwaukee a reason to manage his workload carefully ahead of October. That difference could allow Cease to erase a six-strikeout deficit during the final weeks.
Bold Predictions Could Reshape the MLB Standings
Several ESPN analysts made aggressive predictions for September. Tim Kurkjian expects Aaron Judge to return Sept. 8 and immediately make the Yankees the American League favorite. Other predictions include the Yankees winning the AL East, the Seattle Mariners stealing the AL West, and the Blue Jays returning to the postseason.
One forecast has the Mariners winning 11 of their final 15 games, with Cal Raleigh hitting a walk-off home run to clinch the division. Another predicts Chris Sale will surge late and win the National League Cy Young Award.
With every series carrying postseason consequences, the final MLB standings could look very different by the end of the month. The division leaders may remain mostly intact, but the wild-card races and award battles are positioned to deliver a dramatic finish.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which team is favored for the final AL wild-card spot?
The Toronto Blue Jays are the leading choice, receiving 10 votes from ESPN experts. The Cleveland Guardians and Texas Rangers also remain in contention.
Who is favored to claim the NL’s sixth playoff seed?
The San Diego Padres are favored over the Arizona Diamondbacks. San Diego received 12 votes, supported by its improved offense, strong rotation and elite bullpen.
Who could lead MLB in home runs?
Kyle Schwarber is the favorite after receiving 12 votes. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the main challenger following an exceptional power surge in August.
Will Yordan Alvarez win the Triple Crown?
The experts were nearly split, with seven predicting that Alvarez will win the Triple Crown and eight expecting him to fall short in at least one category.
Who is favored to lead MLB in strikeouts?
Dylan Cease is the clear favorite. He received 13 votes compared with two for Jacob Misiorowski and could benefit from a heavy September workload.
