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NFL Week 1 picks are in, and the 2026 season is opening with a fascinating mix of strong favorites, divisional rivalries and potential upsets. NFL.com editors Jeremy Bergman, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice, Bobby Kownack and Dan Parr selected winners for every game, with several matchups producing divided opinions.
The opening slate begins Wednesday, Sept. 9, with the Seattle Seahawks hosting the New England Patriots at Lumen Field. Seattle received unanimous support from the five analysts, although the group expects a more competitive contest than the Seahawks’ 29-13 Super Bowl victory over New England in February.
Explosive NFL Week 1 Picks Highlight Major Matchups
The Seahawks are favored by 3.5 points, but their backfield and secondary face important questions. Kenneth Walker III departed during the offseason, Zach Charbonnet is on the physically unable to perform list, and Seattle will rely heavily on Jadarian Price and George Holani. The Patriots, meanwhile, are expected to feature new offensive weapon A.J. Brown.
Thursday’s international matchup in Melbourne offers one of the week’s biggest storylines. The Los Angeles Rams are favored over the San Francisco 49ers, but the picks were split 3-2. Travel could be decisive: San Francisco arrived in Australia a week early, while the Rams planned a much shorter turnaround. Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald are also among the notable players not traveling.
Surprising Upset Calls Across Sunday’s Schedule
Sunday brings several intriguing predictions. Two editors selected the Carolina Panthers over the Chicago Bears, despite Chicago being a three-point favorite. Other analysts backed Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson’s offense, citing questions about Carolina’s offensive line and the Panthers’ ability to keep pace in a potential shootout.
The Buffalo Bills-Texans game is another major test. Houston received four of five picks, largely because of its powerful defense and home-field advantage. The Texans have troubled Josh Allen in each of the past two seasons, and Houston’s pass rush could challenge Buffalo’s new offensive structure immediately.
- Bengals over Buccaneers: Cincinnati’s healthy core of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown makes the Bengals a popular pick in a projected high-scoring game.
- Lions over Saints: Detroit received unanimous support, with analysts expecting its Ford Field offense to overwhelm New Orleans.
- Ravens over Colts: Baltimore is favored in a game focused on Lamar Jackson’s return to form and Daniel Jones’ recovery from an Achilles injury.
- Jaguars over Browns: Jacksonville is the week’s biggest favorite, with Cleveland facing uncertainty at quarterback and on defense.
- Steelers over Falcons: Pittsburgh’s experience and Aaron Rodgers’ familiarity with the offense gave the Steelers a clean sweep of predictions.
Critical Sunday Afternoon and Prime-Time Predictions
The New York Jets were the only unanimous choice in the Titans matchup, with analysts backing Geno Smith and a deeper offensive roster against rookie quarterback Cam Ward. The Los Angeles Chargers also received unanimous support against Arizona, while the Las Vegas Raiders were heavily favored over Miami despite Brock Bowers’ knee procedure ruling him out for the opener.
In the NFC North, Minnesota narrowly edged Green Bay in the predictions. The Packers begin the season without Josh Jacobs and Micah Parsons, while the Vikings hope Kyler Murray can thrive under Kevin O’Connell. Philadelphia was another unanimous favorite against Washington, whose offensive line and defensive rebuild remain major concerns.
Sunday night’s Cowboys-Giants clash produced one of the week’s closest splits. Four analysts selected Dallas, but Cersosimo backed New York after an offseason led by John Harbaugh and a revamped Giants roster. The matchup also carries added intrigue because Dallas is replacing injured guard Tyler Smith.
Monday night closes Week 1 with Denver visiting Kansas City. The Chiefs are slight favorites, but three analysts picked the Broncos. Patrick Mahomes’ return from a serious knee injury and Bo Nix’s continued development make this AFC West showdown one of the most anticipated games of the opening week.
What the NFL Week 1 Picks Reveal
The predictions point to a season beginning with uncertainty. Injuries, new coaches, international travel and quarterback changes are influencing nearly every matchup. While favorites dominate several selections, the split decisions involving the Rams, Bills, Giants and Chiefs suggest that Week 1 could deliver immediate drama.
All betting lines cited by NFL.com were locked as of 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sept. 9. Fans should follow responsible-play guidance when considering wagers.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which team received unanimous support in Week 1?
The Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions, Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles were each selected by all five NFL.com analysts.
Which Week 1 game had the most divided picks?
The Rams-49ers matchup was closely divided, with three analysts choosing Los Angeles and two selecting San Francisco.
Who is the biggest favorite in Week 1?
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the biggest listed favorite, with an 8.5-point spread against the Cleveland Browns.
Which game could produce an upset?
The Broncos-Chiefs matchup is a leading upset candidate because Denver received three of five picks despite Kansas City being favored at home.
