Image Source: TODAY.com
The COVID summer wave is beginning to build across the United States, with coronavirus activity increasing in nearly every region just as millions of children prepare to return to school. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that cases were growing or likely growing in 47 states as of Aug. 19.
National COVID activity remains low by CDC standards, but experts say the trend is moving upward, particularly in the South and West. The latest increase follows a quieter period after last winter’s respiratory virus season and is consistent with the seasonal pattern COVID-19 has developed in the U.S.
What’s Driving the Latest COVID Summer Wave?
“We’ve had two waves every year. One in the middle to late summer, and the other during the winter,” Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told TODAY.com.
Wastewater data offer differing snapshots of the outbreak. The CDC described national SARS-CoV-2 wastewater activity as “very low” for the week ending Aug. 15. However, WastewaterSCAN, a Stanford University-run monitoring program, reported “high” activity nationwide and a sharp upward trend over the previous 21 days.
Amanda Bidwell, WastewaterSCAN’s scientific program manager, said SARS-CoV-2 concentrations were up 106% in August compared with July. The West and South recorded the highest concentrations, with California and Texas among the states showing some of the sharpest increases.
At least 15 states and territories were experiencing active COVID outbreaks, according to the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative’s Aug. 17 data tracker. Still, experts emphasized that the current wave appears less severe than last year’s summer surge, when the Stratus variant fueled a stronger rise that continued into fall.
When Could Cases Peak?
It remains too early to determine how large the wave will become. Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., an assistant professor at Tulane University School of Medicine, predicted that transmission could peak around the first week of September.
Back-to-school gatherings, indoor activities and continued summer travel could all provide opportunities for the virus to spread. Dr. Schaffner cautioned that the country was still early in the seasonal increase and urged people to remain alert.
Powerful Variant and Symptom Details to Know
The latest infections are being driven by several familiar omicron-related strains rather than one entirely new variant. XFG.1.1 was responsible for an estimated 22% to 40% of U.S. cases during the previous month, according to CDC surveillance data.
Another strain, BA.3.2, also known as Cicada, accounted for approximately 15% of cases. Although Cicada has spread rapidly in other parts of the world, experts said it has not yet become dominant in the United States.
Symptoms linked to the circulating variants remain similar to those caused by earlier omicron strains. Common signs include:
- Cough and sore throat
- Congestion and shortness of breath
- Fatigue, fever, chills and headache
- Nausea, vomiting and diarrhea
Because COVID-19 symptoms can resemble flu, allergies and other respiratory infections, testing remains important. Anyone who receives a negative result from a rapid at-home antigen test should repeat it after 48 hours, in line with CDC guidance.
Critical Guidance for Staying Safe
Most people recover from COVID-19 without medical intervention, but older adults, infants, pregnant people, individuals with weakened immune systems and those with underlying medical conditions face a higher risk of serious illness.
People who become sick should stay home and limit contact with others until symptoms improve and they have been free of fever for at least 24 hours without using medication. During recovery, experts recommend avoiding close contact with immunocompromised relatives and wearing a well-fitted N95 or KN95 respirator when around others.
Antiviral medicines can reduce the severity and duration of illness when taken early. People at higher risk should contact a healthcare professional promptly after symptoms begin or after testing positive.
When Will the New COVID Vaccine Be Available?
The updated 2026-2027 COVID-19 vaccines are expected to target XFG, the strain anticipated to circulate during the fall and winter. The shots were not yet available as of Aug. 21, but experts expected their release sometime in September, pending the remaining approval and distribution steps.
Since federal guidance moved away from a universal recommendation toward shared clinical decision-making for people ages 6 months and older, individuals are encouraged to discuss vaccination with a doctor, nurse or pharmacist. Medical experts say updated vaccination is especially important for high-risk groups and pregnant women because it can help protect against hospitalization, severe disease and death.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is there a COVID summer wave in 2026?
Yes. Experts say the United States is entering a late-summer COVID wave, although national activity remains low and the increase appears less severe than last year’s surge.
Which states have the highest COVID activity?
The South and West currently have the highest reported concentrations, with California and Texas among the states experiencing notable increases.
What are the most common COVID symptoms?
Common symptoms include cough, sore throat, congestion, fatigue, fever, chills, headache, shortness of breath, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea.
When should I repeat a negative rapid COVID test?
The CDC recommends taking another rapid antigen test 48 hours after an initial negative result if COVID-19 infection is still suspected.
When are updated COVID vaccines expected?
The updated 2026-2027 COVID vaccines were expected to become available in September, though timing could change if approval or distribution is delayed.
