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The Texas Senate race is taking a dramatic turn as Democrat James Talarico opens a six-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in a closely watched poll released less than two weeks before early voting begins.
The latest New York Times and Siena Research Institute survey shows Talarico ahead of Paxton, 51% to 45%, among Texas voters. The candidates were tied at 47% in the same poll conducted in June, indicating a significant shift in the contest during the summer.
Texas Senate Poll Reveals Major Shift Among Voters
The survey was conducted from Sept. 21 through Sept. 30 and included 615 Texas voters. It carries a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points, meaning the race remains competitive despite Talarico’s current advantage.
Polling on individual issues also favored Talarico across several important categories. Voters said they viewed him as the stronger candidate on matters that could shape the next Senate term, including household expenses, health care and government effectiveness.
- Effective senator: Talarico 51%, Paxton 44%
- Data centers: Talarico 50%, Paxton 42%
- Cost of living: Talarico 52%, Paxton 42%
- Best for ordinary Texans: Talarico 55%, Paxton 40%
- Health care: Talarico 53%, Paxton 41%
- Tariffs: Talarico 52%, Paxton 43%
- Immigration: Talarico 48%, Paxton 48%
Immigration was the only issue tested where the two candidates were evenly matched. That result reflects the importance of the issue to both parties, particularly in a state where border security and immigration policy remain central campaign themes.
Explosive Campaign Spending Raises the Stakes
The polling shift comes as spending in the Texas Senate contest reaches extraordinary levels. According to ad-tracking firm AdImpact, advertising in the race has reached approximately $442 million.
That total makes the contest the second-most expensive non-presidential race in U.S. history. It also places the campaign among the most financially intense Senate battles ever recorded, with both national parties investing heavily in Texas.
Republicans have spent about $326 million on advertising, compared with $116 million from Democrats. The spending gap has not prevented Talarico from improving his position in the latest survey, but it highlights the scale of the Republican effort to hold the seat.
With the election approaching, voters are expected to see an even greater wave of television, digital and other campaign advertisements. The flood of messaging could shape opinions among undecided voters while intensifying the political battle across the state.
Texas Voters Express Concerns About the State’s Direction
The Senate race is unfolding against a broader backdrop of voter dissatisfaction. In the poll, 46% of respondents said Texas was heading in the wrong direction, while 41% said the state was on the right track. Another 12% either did not know or declined to answer.
Democratic candidates also showed improvement in other statewide matchups. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa led Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, 49% to 46%, with 5% undecided. In June, Hinojosa trailed Abbott by six points.
Voters also preferred the Democratic candidate in their U.S. House district by a 47% to 45% margin. At the same time, President Donald Trump’s approval numbers weakened, with 57% saying they disapproved of his job performance, up from 52% in June.
What Comes Next in the Texas Senate Race?
Early voting in Texas begins Oct. 19, giving both campaigns a limited window to change the race’s trajectory. Election Day will follow in November, when voters decide whether Talarico’s lead represents a lasting realignment or a temporary polling advantage.
Paxton’s campaign will likely focus on energizing Republican voters, emphasizing immigration, conservative priorities and national political issues. Talarico, meanwhile, enters the final stretch with stronger numbers on the cost of living, health care and the question of which candidate best represents ordinary Texans.
The close margin of error means neither campaign can treat the latest result as decisive. Still, the six-point lead represents a notable development in a race that was tied just months ago. With record-level spending and national attention, the Texas Senate contest is poised to remain one of the country’s most closely watched elections.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading the Texas Senate race?
Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton, 51% to 45%, in the latest New York Times and Siena Research Institute poll.
When was the latest Texas Senate poll conducted?
The survey of 615 Texas voters was conducted from Sept. 21 through Sept. 30 and released Oct. 6.
How much money has been spent on the race?
AdImpact reports that advertising spending has reached approximately $442 million, making it the second-most expensive non-presidential race in U.S. history.
When does early voting begin in Texas?
Early voting begins Oct. 19, ahead of the November election.
Which issues favor Talarico?
Voters rated Talarico higher on cost of living, health care, tariffs, data centers, effective leadership and doing what is best for ordinary Texans.
