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Flash flood warning alerts are affecting communities across the Southwest as a powerful El Niño-fueled storm brings heavy rain, rising rivers, strong winds and mountain snow. The dangerous weather pattern is expected to affect more than 35 states through next week, with the most immediate and severe impacts focused on Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and parts of California.
Critical Flash Flood Warning Targets the Four Corners
The Four Corners region is facing a major flood event, with a Level 3 out of 4 flash flood risk in place Sunday. The threat covers more than 65,000 square miles, an area roughly the size of Washington state, and affects more than four million people.
The National Weather Service has described the system as a high-impact heavy rainfall event. Several rivers are forecast to rise to levels similar to or higher than those recorded during last week’s flooding, when some waterways reached their highest levels in 50 to 100 years.
- Central and northern Arizona face a heightened flash flooding threat.
- Up to 5 inches of rain could fall between Phoenix and Flagstaff through Monday.
- Flooding may worsen in areas already saturated by recent storms.
- More than 35 states could experience rain, thunderstorms or snow through next week.
Urgent Evacuations Issued in Arizona and Colorado
Portions of Sedona, Arizona, are under evacuation guidance as Oak Creek rises rapidly. Officials are urging residents in vulnerable areas to follow local instructions and move to higher ground before roads become impassable.
In Pagosa Springs, Colorado, mandatory evacuations were issued Saturday for homes and properties as the San Juan River continued to rise. The FOX Forecast Center said the river could exceed its all-time record of 17.8 feet and potentially crest near 19.71 feet.
A Potentially Dangerous Situation River Flood Warning is in effect for the area. The National Weather Service office in Pueblo warned residents that the window for flood and snow preparations was closing.
Recent flooding has already caused significant disruption across the region. Last week, two people died in New Mexico, while rising water prompted rescues and emergency declarations in several communities.
Powerful Storms Trigger Rescues Around Phoenix
Intense thunderstorms caused flash flooding across southern Nevada and the Phoenix metropolitan area Friday. Six people were rescued in Phoenix after drivers became stranded in rushing floodwaters. No injuries were reported.
Las Vegas was hit by evening thunderstorms that produced quarter-sized hail. Floodwater also overtopped part of Lake Mead Highway in Henderson, Nevada, forcing a closure and creating hazardous travel conditions.
Officials continue to warn drivers not to cross flooded roads. Even shallow moving water can sweep away vehicles, hide damaged pavement and expose people to dangerous debris or contamination.
Heavy Snow to Follow Record Southwest Rain
While lower elevations face a serious flood threat, colder air is expected to become trapped over the higher terrain. Snow will spread from the Sierra Nevada into the Rockies, with Colorado’s San Juan Mountains likely to receive the heaviest totals.
Forecast snowfall totals range from 12 to 18 inches by Monday. The National Weather Service cautioned that snow could create dangerous and slick conditions on southwestern mountain roads, especially Sunday night into Monday morning.
The combination of saturated ground, rising rivers, mud and heavy snow could make travel especially difficult. Residents in mountain communities should complete preparations early and monitor official forecasts as conditions change quickly.
Storms Expand Into the Plains and Midwest
By Monday, the storm system is expected to move into the Plains and Midwest. Nearly 40 million Americans could be under a Level 1 out of 4 flash flood threat stretching from Texas to Wisconsin.
Warm, moist air flowing northward will interact with an approaching cold front. That setup could fuel severe thunderstorms from Texas into parts of the Southeast between Monday and Wednesday. The main concerns include damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, although forecasters say the exact storm intensity remains uncertain.
By Thursday and Friday, additional heavy rain could reach the I-95 corridor, including Raleigh, Washington, D.C., New York City and Boston. The unsettled pattern may offer an early preview of a wetter winter influenced by a strengthening El Niño pattern.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a flash flood warning mean?
A flash flood warning means flooding is occurring or expected soon. People in affected areas should move to higher ground immediately and avoid flooded roads.
Where is the greatest flooding risk?
The greatest risk is focused on the Four Corners, including central and northern Arizona, southwestern Colorado, parts of New Mexico and southern Nevada.
How much snow is expected in Colorado?
Colorado’s San Juan Mountains could receive between 12 and 18 inches of snow by Monday, creating dangerous travel conditions at higher elevations.
Could severe storms affect other states?
Yes. Storms may spread into the Plains, Midwest, South and eventually the East, with damaging winds, heavy rain and a few tornadoes possible in some areas.