Image Source: NBC News
Alaska Senate race 2026 results remain too close to call as election officials continue processing ballots in the contest between former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.
With approximately 84.3% of expected votes reported, Peltola holds 49% of the vote, while Sullivan has 47.2%. Republican candidate Gerald Heikes is receiving 2.2%, according to the latest figures reported by NBC News. Around 46,000 votes remain outstanding, meaning the apparent lead could still change as additional ballots are counted.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Delivers a Dramatic Finish
The closely watched race has attracted national attention because Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, is seeking a third term, while Peltola is attempting to return to Congress after previously serving as Alaska’s lone member of the U.S. House.
The contest has been especially competitive across Alaska’s varied voting regions. Peltola has performed strongly in several early and mail voting categories, while Sullivan has held an advantage among Election Day voters. The remaining ballots could determine whether either candidate reaches the majority threshold required to avoid another round of tabulation.
- Mary Peltola: 49%
- Dan Sullivan: 47.2%
- Gerald Heikes: 2.2%
- Expected vote counted: 84.3%
- Estimated votes remaining: approximately 46,000
Why Ranked-Choice Voting Could Decide the Winner
Alaska uses ranked-choice voting for its federal elections. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote after the initial count, election officials will tabulate voters’ second choices through a ranked-choice process.
NBC News reported that Alaska expects to determine on Nov. 18 whether any candidate has secured a majority. If no contender reaches that mark, ranked-choice tabulation will begin. Additional updates could be released sooner, although the state has indicated that larger batches of results are expected next week.
Because Heikes is receiving a relatively small share of the vote, the preferences of his supporters could become important if the race proceeds to ranked-choice tabulation. However, the final outcome will depend on how those ballots are marked and whether voters listed a second-choice candidate.
Ballot Counting Keeps Both Campaigns on Alert
The latest voting breakdown shows a notable contrast between ballot types. Sullivan leads among Election Day voters, receiving about 50% compared with Peltola’s 45%. Peltola has performed better among early in-person voters, where she holds approximately 56% to Sullivan’s 42%.
Peltola also leads among early mail voters, receiving about 59% compared with Sullivan’s 39%. Mail ballots are still being processed, making the outstanding vote particularly important in a race separated by less than two percentage points.
The district-level results also show how geographically diverse the contest has become. Sullivan leads in some areas, while Peltola has built strong margins in others, including several districts where she has received more than 60% of the reported vote.
What Alaska Voters Are Saying
NBC News exit polling suggests the race reflects sharp differences among age groups, education levels and political affiliations. Peltola has performed strongly among younger voters, college graduates and independents. Sullivan has been more competitive among older voters, veterans and conservative Republicans.
The survey also points to the importance of national political issues. Voters cited the economy, immigration enforcement, government corruption and the cost of living as major concerns. Many respondents also expressed dissatisfaction with the direction of the country and remained focused on which party would control the Senate.
Ranked-choice voting itself remains divisive. In the exit poll, 45% of voters said they supported Alaska’s system, while 52% opposed it. That debate could intensify if the Senate contest is ultimately decided through a second-choice count.
What Happens Next in the Alaska Senate Race?
Election officials will continue verifying and counting outstanding ballots before announcing whether a candidate has won a majority. Until then, the race will remain officially unresolved.
If Peltola or Sullivan crosses 50% after the initial count, that candidate will win the Senate seat. If neither does, election officials will conduct ranked-choice tabulation. The process could take additional time as ballots are reviewed and transferred according to voters’ preferences.
The result could have consequences beyond Alaska. NBC News’ national results show Democrats holding 55 Senate seats and Republicans holding 44, making every unresolved contest important to the balance of power in Washington. Alaska’s final result will help determine the makeup of the next Senate and could influence debates over energy, federal spending, healthcare and national security.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading the Alaska Senate race 2026?
Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is leading with 49% of the vote, followed by Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan with 47.2%, according to the latest reported results.
When will the Alaska Senate race be decided?
Alaska expects to determine whether a candidate has won a majority on Nov. 18. Additional results may be released before then.
What happens if no candidate wins more than 50%?
If no candidate reaches a majority, Alaska will use ranked-choice tabulation to redistribute votes based on voters’ second choices.
How many votes remain to be counted?
NBC News estimates that approximately 46,000 votes remain, though that figure may change as election officials provide more information.
Why is this race important?
The outcome will determine Alaska’s next U.S. senator and contribute to the final balance of power in the Senate.
